Rockville Pikemen Preview

[aaronweiner]

Rockville Team Page

Overview:

This used to be my playground. This used to be my childhood dream. That's why I chose the Rockville Pikemen to review. Since I left, they have been under the same ownership, and because I left them an aging team with a minimal farm, the last couple years haven't looked so great in the Greater D.C. area. The Pikemen haven't had a winning season since 2050, the last time they made the playoffs, and have averaged 74 wins over that span. There are glimmers from their past still in the franchise, but mostly the team has turned entirely over, with all new players on the squad. So how is the team progressing after a few years? Let's take a look inside the Rockville organization and find out.

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Some Key Stats:


Last year's record: 73-89, 5th place, Johnson Atlantic
Last season's offensive/defensive finish: 11th in runs scored, 12th in runs allowed
Current team payroll: $117 million ($12 million cap space available)
Largest new offseason acquisition: LF Eric Wagner, by trade from Omaha
Biggest offseason contract concern: SP Nathaniel Davis

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Lineup Overview:

Questions abound in the lineup for the Pikemen, whose lineup should top out at slightly above mediocre and could be a potential weakness for the team. Wagner is a big addition to the lineup, but while the outfielder has put up tremendous numbers, he's done it in one of the best hitting environments in the BBA, Omaha, with plenty of lineup protection. He'll still have a little here, though, as Rockville still has perennial .300 hitter and potential future Hall of Famer Julio Barajas hitting behind him. Even Barajas is a concern, though: he's coming off a .334/.384/.583 slashline that was actually above his career .941 OPS and was a five-year high for the 34 year old. His 4.7 WAR last year was almost as much as the 5.6 WAR he earned in his previous three years combined, so he's a regression candidate.

Lots of questions about the rest of the offense. Socrates Kazantziakas was given a gilded new contract after an excellent year at the plate, but the righty has lost a little bat speed and could fall back, too. The team is hoping that on-again, off-again third baseman Brian Dixon is on again; he hasn't seemed to have lost any skills at age 34. John McMuttray has a chance to be one of the better offensive catchers in the BBA, but he's just average as a DH. He's there because incumbent Gurm Guldenmond has had two of the more shocking solid seasons at catcher in the BBA bracketing two years where he's below replacement. Maybe Stewart Illingworth will push McMuttray to catcher, which might help the lineup some. The team seems to have found a solid centerfielder in Varnik Tuncay and would almost certainly be better off playing top prospect Ruben Alvarado over retread Logan Niles, but we'll see what they do.

It's not a great unit, and it's saying something that the team got 12 WAR from Barajas, Guldenmond, Kazantziakis, and Tuncay and still finished 11th offensively; the four players combined for 3 WAR in 2053. I'd be awfully nervous about running this offense out there this season.

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Pitching Overview:

If I told you that the Rockville pitching staff had three former top ten picks in it, including a former #1 overall, you'd think that's a pretty good staff, right? Well, none of those guys are in the rotation. Instead, we have another potential future Hall of Famer in Danny Leach (10th round) leading the staff; Leach is still a quality starter at age 35 but has lost a little bit and last year posted the highest ERA and his lowest WAR in any full season. Nathaniel Davis has been babied by the team for years, but he's still one of the hardest players in the BBA to take deep and puts up solid numbers. Nasir al Din bin Sahir has excellent advanced stats, though he's had average production for his career so far. The team might get a boost from 24-year old lefty and former first round pick Joe MacIndoe, though he had a dramatic sophomore slump. Jon Keys rounds out the rotation, and maybe he can turn into a late bloomer.

The bullpen, as mentioned, is studded with name players but not overwhelmingly productive. Former top-10 pick Luis Gonzalez is the closer, and it's surprising that he hasn't done better than he has; maybe he'll take a step forward. Mike Adams, one of the biggest #1 overall busts in BBA history, has maybe found himself in middle relief; he was very productive last season. Setup man David Bryant is the best of the rest of the unit, but the rest of the pen is full of holes and low achievers.

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Cap Summary and Financials:

Rockville is pressed right up against the cap this year, and it shows, but they'll have about $20 million in cap space next year if they keep everyone, something that seems unlikely. Most key players are under contract until at least 2058 other than Julio Barajas, who would be 38 that year, and they'll probably have close to $60 million to sign players at that point. They should be able to make enough space to fit in Daniels in 2057, a slight concern, if that's the route they choose.


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Overall:

Aging pitching staff, aging lineup, shaky bullpen. That's not usually the best recipe for success, and paying a guy with 3.5 career WAR and zero home runs more money than Theo Bourges got sounds like a tough sell, even with a $120 million cap. This feels like they're in the middle of a long-term rebuild, and I'm not seeing any reason to push them forwards into the playoffs, but if they get a lot of repeat performances from last year I could imagine them hitting the .500 mark.

Prediction: 71-91

[BaseClogger]

Can a former #1 pick really be one of the biggest busts of all-time if they're in a Brewster bullpen? I'd think there's been plenty of #1 picks who didn't even make it to the show.

[aaronweiner]

Not the 1/1. I just looked through about 30 of them and the lowest #1 overall had about 20 WAR.

The #1 is usually a sure thing.

I remember having back to back #1s in the teens. Thomas and Chapel, total WAR 180.

[JimSlade]

Good stuff. It's hard to disagree with your dire prediction, but I'll see what I can squeeze out of this team. Here's to a few more younger, cheaper players, like Tuncay last year, taking a step forward and dragging us just short of .500!

[trmmilwwi]

Great writeup. Those 1st rders, ugh.