So I pulled the results log and looked at it. I couldn’t really get a good PAA kind of metric on it, but I could do some different kinds of breakdowns. So I did. This particular work will be focused on ground balls because Iwamoto’s no hitter contained 14 ground balls, three fly balls, and 4 popups (to go with 5 strikeouts and a walk). I figured looking at the 14 grounders would be more fun than the three fly balls. I note, though, that Iwamoto induced 4 popups, which seems like a good number. On the whole he seemed to be, as they say, “dealing.”
Anyway.
First I had to get a baseline for how to judge contact in any particular zone. So I gathered ground ball data from the whole league and then calculated the average exit velocity of balls hit into each zone, as well as the min, max, and standard deviations. I then calculated the “1-Standard Deviation” zone, which is the range that roughly 70% of the balls hit should fall into if this were a truly random population (which it probably should not perfectly be, but that’s a different conversation). Regardless, I wanted to use that range as something to define “expected” performance of an average team.
Here’s that data:
Fancy, right? Loosely, shallow balls tend to be hit softly, normal grounders tagged pretty well, and balls hit into the “deep” zones tend to be scorched. Without looking into actual Statcast numbers, I’d say it looks like OOTP has that about right, at least directionally.
So now let’s turn to May 10th, 2057, with Kinzo Iwamoto on the hill.
Here’s his day, broken out by plate appearance. Rather than define everything here, I’ll present it, then dig through the table below.
Let me diverge first to those three fly balls. Given that Iwamoto is listed as an extreme GB pitcher, it’s probably not surprising that he allowed only the three. One was a can of corn to right center, but two were well-struck balls that chased center fielder Bill Morely back to near the warning track to flag down. Morely is an elite glove. I can report that per my PAA data, the league as an average turns those balls into outs at about a 96.6% rate, so it’s not too surprising that Morely made those work out for Iwamoto.
But we’re here to look at the grounders.
To do so, I looked at each plate appearance and colored the grounders yellow if the Exit Velocity was greater than average, and green if it was lower than average. This way we can see that Iwamoto induced 9 grounders of relatively poor quality, and allowed only 5 sharply hit balls. Going one more step, though, I tagged each grounder that was outside of the 1-STD range with an asterisk.
Low Quality Contact
Using this guideline, we can see that of the nine lower-quality grounders Iwamoto induced, four of them were so softly hit as to fall outside that 1-standard-devition demarcation. If this were totally random, you’d expect about 15% of grounders to fall into that zone, or, with 14 grounders, you’d expect only two.
So, on the whole, he’s looking good there.
But … hum … here’s something interesting.
High Quality Contact
The Pikemen struck Iwamoto with five sharply struck grounders, and all five were not only above average, but above that 1-Standard Deviation mark. So it seems like when Rockville got to him, they got to him well.
When we look at the guys who got to Iwamoto, it makes a bit of sense.
Two of those grounders came off the bat of leadoff hitter Socrates 'The Philosopher' Kazantziakis. Socrates is a groundball, spray hitter who is BABIPing .324. He’s going to hit the ball hard.
Others who hit scorchers include the Pikemen’s #2 hitter Eric Wagner, #3 hitter Cam Whitten (1B), and #7 hitter Julio Barajas (DH). Of these, only Barajas has a profile that suggests his EV was a bit lucky. Indeed, looking at his performance this year, he’s struck 13 grounders for an average of 85.7 MPH. That 108 MPHer against Iwamoto was his hardest hit ball of the year to date. For posterity’s sake, Wagner averages 87 MPH on his grounders, Whitten 92 MPH, and Socrates 91.
Bottom line: one expect those five balls brought the defense into play to a greater extent than the norm.
So let’s look at them.
First Inning
The first inning naturally saw Iwamoto face the top of the Pikemen order. It saw Kazantziakis drill a 108.8 MPH rocket into the vicinity of shortstop Jeremy Webb, who made the play. Webb, I note is a good-handed defender who possesses moderate range for a shortstop. The ball was hit into his zone, though. The inning also saw second baseman Miguel Martínez tested when Whitten scorched a ball right at him. Martinez has been roughly league average in the field the past couple seasons. He’s going to have a little adventure this game, but he made this play, and Iwamoto was out of the dangerous first inning.
Inning 2 & 3
Rockville didn’t get much happening as Iwamoto kind of mowed them down, striking out two and allowing only one of those well-struck fly balls to center. Rockville lets him get out of the second inning on only six pitches. It takes him nine to retire the side in the third, and that includes a 6-pitch strikeout.
Fourth Inning
Kazantziakis tries Webb again, but Webb turns his 105 MPH worm killer into an out. I guess it’s true that the secret is to hit ’em where they ain’t. After retiring Socrates, Iwamoto gets a pop fly and a weak grounder, and caps off a 10-pitch inning.
Fifth Inning
Flyball, pop up, strikeout. Eleven pitches, three non-threatening outs. Iwamoto looks like he’s on cruise control.
Sixth Inning
Leading off the inning, Baraja smokes his grounder to Hanbal Sayyid at first base. Sayyid takes it to the base by himself. Sayyid is a solid defender at first. Maybe not a Zimmer kind of glove, but a good one. Not the rock some guys consider putting out there.
The inning finishes with another pop fly and a weakish grounder. It’s of note that the Pikemen used four pitches here. The game is cooking along.
Seventh Inning
Apparently charges with actually making Iwamoto work a bit, Socrates breaks up the perfect game by drawing a walk.
Unruffled, Iwamoto gets Wagner to hit a sharply hit, but a tailor-made double play ball to Martinez at second base. Martinez flips to Webb, Webb to Sayyid. Perhaps it’s not quite the poetry other double play combos, but they get the job done. When Whitten flies to deep center, and Morely does his magic, Iwamoto is out of the inning. At 12 pitches, it’s the hardest he’s had to work.
Eighth Inning
I mentioned earlier that Miguel Martínez was going to have a bit of adventure later. Well, here we go. Rockville’s Richard Vernon leads off by tapping a weak little grounder to Martinez at second base. It’s a very poorly hit ball, registering in that sub-1-Standard Deviation range where you just assume the fielder is going to make the play. But Martinez botches it and Vernon is on base.
The next hitter hits a solid grounder to third, though, and Eduardo González tosses it to Martinez at second, who then atones for his blunder by turning the double play to clear the bases. When the next hitter pops up on the first pitch (naturally), the inning of Martinez’s adventure is over.
Ninth Inning
Iwamoto induces a weak ground out to start the inning, then strikes out the last two Pikemen (on a total of seven pitches).
A Note On Zones & Rockville's Impatience
So, yeah. This was interesting and fun. Did Iwamoto have a weird day? Yeah. Kind of. He did give up five hard-hit grounders rather than the two that the mathematics of randomness would suggest, but only one of those was to an unusual hitter. Sample size says he might have gotten a little lucky.
But I note that luck may not have been related to Exist Velocity so much as location.
Note that none of the hard-hit ground balls were hit to a “middle zone” (34M, 4M, 6M or 56M). Also, no ground balls were hit into the “Deep” infield zones. Conversion rates on those zones are considerably less than those hit in the “standard” 3/4/5/6 zones, and Iwamoto made out like a bandit there. Five hard-hit balls, all right at his defenders.
Interesting.
I also note that at 3.8 pitches/PA on the season, Rockville is (I think) the 7th most patient team in the league. They saw only 2.85 pitches this game, which maybe reflects on personnel they fielded that game, or maybe reflects on some kind of random luck, or maybe just says that Iwamoto was really on his game.
Whatever the truth might be, I suppose we’ll never really know. But it’s always fun to look at, right?
